MARKOV MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE PARAMETRIC RELIABILITY OF ELECTRONIC SYSTEMS 

Grishko Alexey Konstantinovich, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of radio equipment design and production, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), E-mail: alexey-grishko@rambler.ru 

519.718: 519.21 

10.21685/2307-5538-2019-2-1 

Background. The technical condition of radio-electronic systems depends on a variety of parameters that change during operation, which can lead to loss of system performance, additional costs for maintenance or repair. Reducing the cost of operating electronic systems while ensuring the required quality of their operation is an urgent task and requires the improvement of methods for predicting their technical condition. The aim of the work is to construct a model for predicting changes in the parameters of an electronic system during operation.
Materials and methods. A model of forecasting the technical condition was formed on the basis of the theory of Markov chains; in particular, the Markov branching process was used. To determine the stochastic characteristics of the model, the mathematical apparatus of generating functions is applied.
Results. A stochastic model of parametric prediction of the reliability of radio-electronic systems was obtained, which, unlike the use of other approaches, has analytical solutions of a system of differential equations.
Conclusions. The model is proposed to be used to predict the parametric reliability and technical condition of electronic systems, depending on the time of operation. In modular design, the model allows the selection of promising modules of radio electronic means, taking into account their probabilistic reliability characteristics. 

radio electronic system, Markov chain, reliability, parameters, degradation group, transition intensity